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07/31/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chicago will attempt to extend its home winning streak to 13 consecutive games tonight as they continue a three-game weekend set at U.S. Cellular Field against the Oakland Athletics.
Yesterday, Gordon Beckham had two hits and drove in two runs to support six solid innings from Lucas Harrell in his major league debut as Chicago downed Oakland, 6-1, in the opener of this series.
Harrell (1-0), promoted from Triple-A Charlotte earlier in the day, yielded a lone run on four hits while working around five walks for the White Sox, who have won five in a row overall and haven't lost as the host since June 27.
"I went from thinking I was going to start in Louisville today to pitching in Chicago, so it was definitely a different turn of events for me," Harrell said.
Paul Konerko chipped in with two hits, a run scored and a run batted in and Dayan Viciedo collected three hits and scored once for Chicago.
Brett Anderson (2-2) was tagged with the loss after giving up five runs on 10 hits over 5 1/3 innings in his first start since June 3 for the Athletics, who have dropped three out of four.
"My stuff was all right. I felt decent enough -- they're just a good team, playing good at home," Anderson said.
Chicago continues to lead the AL Central, as it holds a 1 1/2-game lead over Minnesota.
As for Oakland, it is 8 1/2 games back of AL-West-leading Texas.
The Athletics have been successful at U.S. Cellular Field in the recent past, having prevailed in four of six matchups with the White Sox there last season. Oakland has also won seven of the past 12 overall tilts in the series.
Dallas Braden was the winning pitcher for Oakland on Sunday in the team's 6-4 triumph over the White Sox. That victory was significant because it marked the first for Braden since his May 9th perfect game. He had lost his last five starts and owned a streak of nine consecutive starts without a win, the longest following a no-hitter in major league history. Braden is 5-7 this season with a 3.77 ERA with only 19 walks in 105 innings.
In two games against the White Sox in his career, Braden is 1-0 with a 4.26 ERA.
Chicago will hand the ball to John Danks this evening in hopes that he can improve on an already solid 11-7 record and 3.23 ERA. Danks has chewed up 133 2/3 innings so far this season, allowing only 107 hits. He has only surrendered seven home runs and win over Seattle on Monday that saw him yield one earned run in eight innings.
Danks has yet to face Oakland this season, but he is 4-0 lifetime against the A's with a 1.62 ERA.
<< Nats try to extend win streak against Phillies
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Usually sellers around the non-waiver trade deadline, the
Nationals didn't seem to impressed on Friday with the Phillies' big midseason
pickup.
One day after spoiling the Philadelphia debut of Roy Oswalt, Washington will
<< Dodgers send out Billingsley on short rest to face Giants
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In danger of losing a fourth straight game, the Los Angeles
Dodgers are in need of a spark. That could come from work-horse Chad
Billingsley, who will pitch on three days' rest for the first time in his
career this afternoon
<< Reds hope to reclaim first place in test with Braves
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Cincinnati Reds try to once again reverse their
standing in the National League's Central Division today when they host the
Atlanta Braves in game two of a three-game series at Great American Ball Park.
The Reds entere
<< Tigers continue road series with Red Sox
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Tigers finally halted a nine-game road losing
streak last night and will aim for a second straight win over the Boston Red
Sox today at Fenway Park.
In Friday's opener, Jhonny Peralta hit a pair of homers and d
Rockies hope to break out bats against vs. Cubs >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The host Colorado Rockies can make it three straight in
suddenly potent offensive style tonight when the Chicago Cubs head to Coors
Field for the second of three games.
Colorado, which had lost eight straight before Thursd
Power-swinging Marlins resume series with Padres >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Even a trip to spacious Petco Park couldn't derail the
Marlins' power train. Florida seeks a sixth straight victory at the Padres'
home park as it continues a three-game set tonight with San Diego.
The Marlins got home run
Rays get Qualls from Diamondbacks >>
St. Petersburg, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Tampa Bay Rays have acquired
reliever Chad Qualls from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for a player to
be named later.
The right-handed Qualls has posted an 8.29 earned run average, t
Bucs agree to terms with McCoy, Penn >>
Tampa, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and first-round draft
pick Gerald McCoy have agreed to terms.
McCoy, a defensive tackle from Oklahoma selected with the third overall pick
of April's draft, reportedly agreed to a fi
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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MySportsbook.com Releases World Series Championship Lines
New York Yankees and Chicago White Sox early favorites to win 2008 World Series
The Major League Baseball season starts this weekend and MySportsbook.com, a leading online sportsbook for over 8 years, is the first to offer baseball sports betting lines on who will win the 2007 World Series.
"The World Series is the biggest baseball event in the sports betting world and MySportsbook.com is excited that we are first to market with betting lines on every team," says Tim Dalton, Marketing Director, MySportsbook.com. "We are getting things ready for a great baseball season and our members are looking forward to our Player Payback Bonuses, as well as Dime Lines, all season long."
Going in to this weekend, MySportsbook.com's favorites to win the World Series are the New York Yankees at 7-2 and last year’s winners the Chicago White Sox at 9-2.
"These betting lines are ripe for the picking," Dalton added, "baseball fans know that the season is long and many factors, including players staying healthy, will affect these Future odds as the baseball season progresses. Betting on your favorite team in the beginning of the season could prove quite lucrative. We are seeing examples of this right now in the NCAA College Basketball Tournament with a lucky few that placed pre-season bets on George Mason to win it all. Anything can happen."
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About www.MySportsbook.com
MySportsbook.com is the foremost online sportsbook offering Internet wagering to its worldwide customers. Fully licensed and regulated in St. John’s, Antigua since 1997, MySportsbook.com offers a complete range of online casino games, sports betting lines, poker tournaments and horse racing offtrack betting daily through its portfolio of companies and managed services. With over 7 years of experience, MySportsbook.com has become one of the most respected companies in the gaming industry by providing unparalleled 24/7 customer support and timely payouts. MySportsbook.com is part of the SportingBet PLC group of companies that is publicly-traded on the London Stock Exchange ( LSE ) under the symbol SBT.L. MySportsbook.com provides a secure environment for sports and casino wagering and has been featured in numerous media outlets, including MAXIM Magazine, Cigar Aficionado, and CNN’s Paula Zahn Now among others.
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