Italy takes back top spot

Soccer Betting Lines

09/19/2007 - Zurich, Switzerland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The FIFA/Coca-Cola rankings for the month of September were released on Wednesday, and they saw Italy regain the top spot by moving ahead of both Argentina and Brazil.

The Italians win over Ukraine in EURO 2008 qualifying was enough to knock Brazil from the top spot down to third, while Argentina remained in second.

Those top three teams have a comfortable edge on the rest of the field, which is lead by Germany, who moved up one spot into fourth. France fell two places after losing to Scotland in EURO qualifying, while the Netherlands took advantage and jumped up into the top five.

Spain sits in seventh, up one place, while Croatia and the Czech Republic both dropped. The Czechs fell two spots into 11th, while Croatia lost four places but stays in the top 10 at 10th. Capitalizing on this was Portugal, who is up two rankings into eighth, while England moves back into the top 10 at ninth with a three-spot improvement.

The Scots used that win over France, as well as one over Lithuania, to climb to their highest ever spot in the rankings, up nine places to 14th.

Mexico dropped two spots to 13th, but still remains the highest rated team in CONCACAF because the United States moved down one spot to 18th after dropping a 4-2 contest to Brazil. Friendlies in October against Catalonia and Switzerland will give the Stars and Stripes a chance to improve on that ranking.

There was plenty of movement outside of the top 50 teams, but Colombia and Guinea both enjoyed big jumps within the top 50. The South American club climbed seven spots to 24th, while Guinea enjoyed a 12-spot improvement to reach 30th.

The biggest drop in the rankings was suffered by Bosnia-Herzegovina, who lost 14 spots down to 39th. Cameroon also had a tough month, dropping nine places to 25th.

The next FIFA/Coca-Cola rankings will be released on October 24.

Points are accumulated based on the results of a team's matches over the past four years, the importance of each match, the strength of the opponent, the strength of the region and the number of matches per year that each team plays.

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Betting the NFL preseason

Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."

When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules. 

The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.

The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.

“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”

The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.

“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”

The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.

“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”

Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.

“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."

So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?

“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.

Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.

Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.

Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.

“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.

Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.

The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.

“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.

Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.

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