Headley, Padres crush Diamondbacks

Baseball Betting Lines

07/17/2010 - San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chase Headley went 3-for-4 with a double and home run, helping the San Diego Padres to a 12-1 victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks in the teams' second-half opener.

Jon Garland (9-6) gave up just one run in six innings to take the win in the opener of this three-game series. He allowed three hits, walked two and struck out five.

Garland was backed by an offense that totaled 14 hits, including a two-run homer from Adrian Gonzalez and a two-run double from Scott Hairston. Jerry Hairston Jr. drove in two for the Padres, who ended the first half atop the NL West.

Arizona starter Dan Haren (7-8) took the loss after allowing six runs on eight hits and a walk in five innings.

Kelly Johnson went 2-for-4 and scored the lone run for the Diamondbacks, who have dropped four in a row against San Diego.

In the first inning, Johnson singled with one out and scored on Justin Upton's double. However, San Diego took control with a five-run fourth inning.

After David Eckstein opened the frame with a ground-rule double, Gonzalez hit his 19th homer of the season. Headley followed with a double, advanced to third on Nick Hundley's single, and later scored on Aaron Cunningham's sacrifice fly.

Haren intentionally walked Tony Gwynn Jr., and a Garland single loaded the bases for Jerry Hairston, whose single to right plated two for a 5-1 lead.

Headley hit a one-out solo homer in the fifth, and Scott Hairston doubled home two in the seventh while facing Blaine Boyer, pushing San Diego's lead to 8-1.

San Diego's bullpen kept Arizona's offense in check, but the Diamondbacks' relievers melted down in the eighth as the game turned into a total blowout.

Jordan Norberto began the inning on the mound and walked Jerry Hairston before getting Eckstein to pop out. Norberto walked Gonzalez and Headley before giving way to Aaron Heilman, who walked Hundley to force in a run. Heilman then hit Gonzalez with a pitch to send another run across the plate.

After Heilman retired Cunningham, he walked Gwynn to force in another run. A pinch-hit single from Everth Cabrera made it a 12-1 game and brought up Jerry Hairston again as San Diego batted around. Hairston grounded out, and Ernesto Frieri pitched a scoreless ninth to end the game.

Game Notes

On Friday, the Padres placed pitchers Mat Latos and Mike Adams on the 15-day disabled list. Latos will be out of action due to a strained left oblique muscle suffered when he was trying to hold back a sneeze last Friday in Colorado. The move is retroactive to July 9. Adams will be shelved with the same injury, with the move retroactive to July 12...San Diego recalled pitcher Frieri and outfielder Luis Durango from Triple-A Portland to take the vacated roster spots.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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