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12/29/2006 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In the end, will it really matter?
That existential question faces the Jacksonville Jaguars and Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday afternoon at Arrowhead Stadium, as the two AFC Wild Card hopefuls will seek a win and some substantial help elsewhere in the league in order to make their postseason dreams come to fruition.
Both 8-7 teams are likely to be peering at the out-of-town scoreboard as they do battle, since each will require simultaneous early-game losses from the Bengals against Pittsburgh and the Titans versus the New England Patriots.
If the Jaguars come out on top on Sunday, they will need a third 1pm Eastern game, the Jets/Raiders tussle at the Meadowlands, to break in favor of 2-13 Oakland.
Should the Chiefs prevail, they would also require a late-game loss for the homestanding Denver Broncos against 6-9 San Francisco.
So...who's ready to talk about offseason needs?
Jacksonville put itself in its current predicament by losing its two most recent games, with last week's 24-21 home loss to the Patriots coming seven days after a disheartening 24-17 loss in Tennessee. If the Jaguars fail to reach the postseason for the sixth time in the last seven years, they will also forego an opportunity to win a playoff game for the first time since 1999.
Speaking of no playoff wins since the 90's, Kansas City is on the brink of unlucky season number 13 without a postseason victory. The Chiefs haven't won a playoff game since 1993, which marks the league's third-longest current drought behind only the Bengals (1990) and Lions (1991). Kansas City last reached the postseason in 2003.
Herm Edwards' team gave itself a window of hope, albeit a slim one, with last Saturday's 20-9 win in Oakland. The Chiefs had previously hampered their chances during a three-game losing streak that included setbacks against the Browns (31-28 in overtime), Ravens (20-10), and Chargers (20-9).
Kansas City will be appearing at Arrowhead for the first time since the loss to Baltimore, which marked the franchise's first defeat in a December home game since 1996.
SERIES HISTORY
Jacksonville holds a 4-1 lead in its all-time series with Kansas City, including a 22-16 home victory when the teams last met, in Week 6 of the 2004 season. The Jaguars won the only matchup played between the teams at Arrowhead, a 23-16 triumph in 2002. Kansas City's only win against the Jags came in 2001, 30-26, on the road.
Edwards is 1-2 in his career against Jacksonville, with all of those matchups dating back to his tenure with the Jets (2001-05). The Jaguars' Jack Del Rio is 1-0 against the Chiefs, for whom he played in 1987-88, and is 1-1 head-to- head against Edwards. Del Rio and the Jags defeated Edwards' Jets, 26-20 in overtime, in Week 3 of last season.
JAGUARS OFFENSE VS. CHIEFS DEFENSE
Though much of the focus on Sunday will be on the Chiefs' Larry Johnson and his bid for the NFL rushing title, it is actually the Jaguars' running game that has a chance to carve out a more significant piece of history. With 105 rushing yards from rookie Maurice Jones-Drew (895 rushing yards, 42 receptions, 14 TD), he and Fred Taylor (1120 rushing yards, 5 TD, 22 receptions) will become the fourth running back tandem of all-time, and first since the Browns' Earnest Byner and Kevin Mack in 1985, to eclipse the 1,000- yard mark in the same season. Falcons running back Warrick Dunn and quarterback Michael Vick have also pulled off the feat in 2006. Jones-Drew drew a bit nearer to the four-digit mark last week, when he received a bulk of the rushing load in the absence of the injured Taylor, carrying 19 times for 131 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Patriots. The UCLA product also contributed six catches for 41 yards out of the backfield. Taylor (hamstring), who missed his first game of the year, is regarded as probable for Sunday. Jacksonville is second in the league in rushing offense (161.9 yards per game), behind only Atlanta.
One week after allowing the Chargers' LaDainian Tomlinson to run wild for 199 yards, the Chiefs last week surrendered a career-high 90 yards on 19 carries to the Raiders' Justin Fargas. After being generally effective against the rush in the early stages of the season, Kansas City has slipped to 18th in NFL rushing defense (121 yards per game). The linebacking corps of Kawika Mitchell (101 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 INT) in the middle and Derrick Johnson (70 tackles, 4.5 sacks) and Kendrell Bell (49 tackles, 1 sack) on the outside did make an impact against the Raiders, however. Mitchell had seven tackles to go along with a sack and a forced fumble; Johnson posted a team-high nine stops and a fumble recovery; and Bell notched nine tackles in the game. In the trenches, tackle James Reed (36 tackles, 1 sack) came up with three tackles and interior mate Ron Edwards (19 tackles, 2.5 sacks) provided a presence with his 320- pound frame.
Stating perhaps his final argument for his abilities as an NFL starting quarterback this week will be Jacksonville's David Garrard (1595 passing yards, 9 TD, 8 INT), who has been hot-and-cold since taking over for the injured Byron Leftwich (ankle) in late October. Garrard has a mediocre starting record (5-4) and passer rating (80.8) on the year, but the four ratings of 100 or better that the athletic signal-caller has produced are perhaps an indication of his potential. Garrard played well against the Patriots last week, completing 17-of-23 passes for 195 yards with a touchdown and a key fumble that he suffered while being sacked on Jacksonville's ill- fated final drive. Matt Jones (36 receptions, 4 TD) was Garrard's most effective receiver, hauling in four passes for 69 yards and a touchdown, while fellow wideouts Reggie Williams (46 receptions, 4 TD) and Ernest Wilford (34 receptions, 2 TD) were limited to two grabs each. Also finishing with two catches was tight end George Wrighster (37 receptions, 3 TD). The Jacksonville o-line has allowed 27 sacks on the year, which ranks them middle-of-the-NFL pack.
Playing the aerial-challenged Raiders allowed a Chiefs defense that had struggled to make plays in both the secondary and pass rush an opportunity to fill up the box score. Kansas City forced five turnovers versus Oakland, including four by quarterback Andrew Walter, and sacked Walter a total of four times. Rookie safety Jarrad Page (31 tackles, 3 INT, 1 sack) and end Jared Allen (73 tackles, 7.5 sacks, 1 INT) were but two of the team's defensive heroes, with Page turning in the first two-interception game of his NFL career and Allen notching a sack and his NFL-leading fifth and sixth fumble recoveries of the year. Allen and fellow end Tamba Hali (56 tackles, 7 sacks) are 1-2 on the Chiefs in sacks. Helping Page in the secondary was cornerback Ty Law (62 tackles, 3 INT, 1 sack), who forced a pair of fumbles. Law and fellow corner Patrick Surtain (60 tackles, 1 INT) will match up with Jones and Williams on Sunday. Kansas City is 14th in the league against the pass (203.3 yards per game) as Week 17 commences.
CHIEFS OFFENSE VS. JAGUARS DEFENSE
Johnson (1651 rushing yards, 36 receptions, 16 TD) enters Week 17 trailing Tomlinson by 98 yards in his quest for the 2006 rushing title, and it is conceivable that Johnson could end up with the crown if San Diego chooses to rest Tomlinson in what could be a meaningless game against Arizona. What the two-time Pro Bowler has a clearer shot at is the NFL single-season record for most rushing attempts in a season. Johnson needs 28 carries this week to surpass the current mark of 410, set by the Falcons' Jamal Anderson in 1998. Johnson has logged 28 or more totes seven times this season, including last Saturday's 31-carry, 135-yard, one-touchdown win over the Raiders. If the Penn State product can amass his 11th 100-yard game of the year on Sunday, he would break his own year-old team record of 1,750 yards. Kansas City is eighth in NFL rushing offense (131.5 yards per game).
Getting to triple-digits will be a challenge for Johnson, who will face a high-quality Jacksonville front seven featuring massive tackles Marcus Stroud (20 tackles, 2.5 sacks) and John Henderson (49 tackles, 3.5 sacks) at its core. The Jaguars are third in the NFL in rushing defense (86 yards per game) and yards per carry allowed (3.4), and come off a week in which they allowed four New England running backs to combine for 86 yards on 20 carries. That total includes a key 27-yard touchdown run for Laurence Maroney in the fourth quarter, just the fifth run of 20 yards or longer against Jacksonville all season. Stroud and Henderson combined for seven tackles in the loss, and top run-stopping linebackers Clint Ingram (66 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 INT) and Daryl Smith (83 tackles, 2 sacks) combined for nine more. Stroud (ankle) is listed as probable on this week's injury report.
The deficiency of the Kansas City passing game will have to be addressed in the offseason, as the three principle members of that group - 36-year-old Trent Green (1161 passing yards, 6 TD, 7 INT), 33-year-old wide receiver Eddie Kennison (47 receptions, 4 TD), and 30-year-old tight end Tony Gonzalez (71 receptions, 5 TD) - are all past their prime. Meanwhile, young linchpins of the attack like No. 2 receiver Samie Parker (39 receptions, 1 TD) and left tackle Jordan Black have not played consistently well, melding into a situation that has seen Kansas City rank 21st in the league in passing offense (185 yards per game). Green was 12-of-24 for 148 yards against the Raiders last week, including a six-yard touchdown pass to Kennison (his only catch of the night) and an interception. Gonzalez helped move the chains with five grabs for 67 yards, and Parker was the team's most productive wideout with three catches totaling 48 yards. The Kansas City line has allowed 38 sacks on the year, including two of Green last Saturday.
A Jacksonville secondary already depleted by a season-ending injury to starting strong safety Donovin Darius (leg) could take another hit this week, as No. 1 free safety Deon Grant (54 tackles, 2 INT) is considered doubtful with a hamstring injury suffered last week. Undrafted rookie free agent Jamaal Fudge (4 tackles) would make his first career start if Grant can't go. Locking up on Kennison and Parker will be cornerbacks Rashean Mathis (58 tackles, 7 INT) and Brian Williams (52 tackles, 1 INT), both of whom have played well for much of the 2006 season. Mathis, who was last week named to his first career Pro Bowl, had five tackles against the Patriots. The pass rush managed just one sack of Tom Brady last Sunday, that by end Paul Spicer (38 tackles, 3 sacks), and the lack of pressure enabled Brady to complete 28 passes to 11 different targets. End Bobby McCray (33 tackles, 9 sacks) continues to lead the Jaguars in sacks. Jacksonville is 11th in the league against the pass (190.2 yards per game), but is further down the chart in sacks (32).
OVERALL ANALYSIS
The Chiefs have a little something to prove in this matchup, and that determination figures to go beyond whatever improbable maneuver it will take for the franchise to reach the postseason. Kansas City needs to take its late- season edge at Arrowhead back, has a running back it would like to see make one final run at an NFL rushing title, and wants to prove capable of beating a quality opponent after the recent losses to the Ravens and Chargers. Jacksonville, meanwhile, is a team that has shot itself in the foot in a multiple number of ways during its current two-game skid, and there is little reason to expect that to change in a hostile environment like that of Kansas City.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Chiefs 28, Jaguars 20
<< Streaking Titans Vying to Keep Hope Alive Vs. Pats
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It required a major effort for the Tennessee Titans to
salvage their season from the scrap heap of an 0-5 start, and the hard work
will continue for Vince Young and his band of AFC Wild Card hopefuls on
Sunday.
The 11-4 P
<< Giants Loss in D.C. Would Raise Contenders' Hopes
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Much of the NFL-viewing public will temporarily become
Washington Redskins fans on Saturday night, when the New York Giants visit
FedEx Field in a game replete with postseason implications.
Should the 5-10 Redskins upset t
<< Jets Try Not to Overlook Raiders
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's a tough week for New York Jets fans.
Serving as a silent counterweight to the prospect of their team giddily
reaching the playoffs against an inferior foe in its home stadium on the
afternoon of New Year's Eve, is the
<< Bengals Need Victory Over Steelers, Help
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Cincinnati Bengals will take one last shot at making
the playoffs this Sunday, when they welcome the Pittsburgh Steelers to Paul
Brown Stadium.
After last week's heartbreaking 24-23 loss in snowy Denver, the Bengals no
Cowboys Look to Right Ship Against Dreadful Lions >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Don't expect the Dallas Cowboys to unfurl a "We're Back!"
banner after Sunday afternoon's tilt with the Detroit Lions.
The Cowboys are more than likely to beat the Lions at Texas Stadium in Week
17, and a decisive win appe
Texans, Browns Face Off Under the Radar >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It won't be the first-, second-, or 13th most intriguing
battle on the Week 17 schedule, but the Houston Texans and Cleveland Browns
will play a football game on Sunday afternoon at Reliant Stadium, and someone,
somewhere, is
Tigers pound Delta Devils >>
Baton Rouge, LA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Glen Davis scored a game-high 19 points and
also had 13 rebounds as the 17th-ranked LSU Tigers rolled over Mississippi
Valley State, 92-58, in the second day of the three-game, three-day Hispanic
College
Saints Game Might Arrive Too Late for Panthers >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - By the time the Carolina Panthers trot onto the Sportexe
Momentum playing surface at the Louisiana Superdome on Sunday afternoon, they
will know exactly what is at stake.
If the New York Giants fall to the Washington Redsk
Matt Kenseth And Kevin Harvick Favorites To Take NASCAR Nextel Cup Championship
(September 15)—The NASCAR season has hit the homestretch with the opening event on this year’s Chase for the Cup taking place this weekend at the Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire International Speedway. With 10 races remaining to determine the Cup Series champion, leading online sportsbook MySportsbook.com today announced odds on all 10 Chase qualifying drivers capturing the NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship.
One of the largest sportsbook sites on the Internet, MySportsbook.com currently lists the top two drivers in the point standings as the early favorites to win the Nextel Cup. Entering the Chase for the Cup with a slim five-point lead in the point standings, 2003 NASCAR champ Matt Kenseth has been made a slight favorite to win his second Cup at 7/2 betting odds. 2001 Cup Rookie of the Year Kevin Harvick has betting odds listed at 5/2 and four-time NASCAR champion Jeff Gordon is listed at 6/1 to capture the Nextel Cup this year.
Hoping to follow in the footsteps of his legendary father who won six NASCAR titles, Dale Earnhardt Jr. stands at 8/1 to breakthrough with his first Cup victory. Staying with the family theme, MySportsbook.com lists 2005 Rookie of the Year Kyle Busch at 14/1 to succeed big brother Kurt’s 2004 NASCAR title. While Kasey Kahne was the final driver to qualify for the Chase with a third place finish last week, the oddsmakers give him a fighting chance at 10/1 mainly due to several mile-and-a-half tracks remaining on the schedule. Despite going winless on the NASCAR circuit this season, Jeff Burton enters the Chase at 5/1 to capture the Cup title. Meanwhile, rookie Denny Hamlin is 4/1 to win the championship, while veteran driver Mark Martin enters the Chase for the Cup as a 15/1 long shot to win his first NASCAR title in his 24th and final season.
MySportsbook.com will offer comprehensive Nascar betting lines on every race remaining on the Nextel Cup series including driver match-ups, props and odds to win each race. For a complete list of NASCAR odds, please visit www.MySportsbook.com.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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